Crisis-level food insecurity is expected to persist in parts of South and East Tigray, in lowland districts along the Tekeze River and in East and West Hararghe, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) said in its September update for Ethiopia.
The update, based on information available as of 30 September, places those areas in Crisis (Phase 3) on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). FEWS NET said seasonal rainfall in the worst-affected areas totalled 50% of average or less, constraining crop production and food access.
It expects the national meher harvest to be below average, with delayed crop development in some areas and crop failure in others. Production losses are estimated at more than 40% in East and West Hararghe, it said.
In Tigray, many meher crops were still in late growing and flowering stages in late September, when they would normally be nearing harvest. FEWS NET said the delay of at least one month postpones the green harvest that typically begins in September, leaving poor households dependent on market purchases for longer.
Staple food prices were high, FEWS NET said. In August, white sorghum in Sekota cost 50% more than in August 2025 and nearly 75% above the five-year average, according to the update. Key informants in East Hararghe reported sharp rises in maize and sorghum prices from August to September.
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FEWS NET said conflict that escalated in the north in late September, with clashes concentrated in parts of Amhara, Tigray and Afar, was disrupting fuel supplies, markets and transport. If the conflict persists at that intensity or worsens, it said, food security in affected areas could deteriorate. The fighting has drawn grave concern from UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Humanitarian food assistance resumed in Tigray in July, targeting more than 1.1 million people, most of them internally displaced, FEWS NET said, adding that conflict is likely disrupting distributions. In East Hararghe, the Hararghe Catholic Secretariat, with support from the Joint Emergency Operation (JEOP), assisted about 223,000 people across seven woredas in August.
Separately, a September humanitarian overview by the Tigray Disaster Risk Management Commission (DRMC) found that 3.9 million people, more than half of Tigray's population, needed immediate emergency food assistance, The New Humanitarian reported on 8 October.
FEWS NET said the situation has continued to evolve rapidly since 30 September and that information on the escalation's impact on acute food insecurity will become available after 31 October.
