Hundreds of people are fleeing Ethiopia's Tigray Regional State daily by bus and plane as federal and Tigrayan forces mass along their shared border, with dozens of young men carrying backpacks and suitcases searching for buses to Addis Ababa deep into the night in Mekelle.
The exodus from the regional capital was reported by multiple outlets including AFP, RFI, Al Jazeera, and AP, which documented the growing fears of renewed conflict in the northern region.
Buses are full for the 700-kilometer drive from Mekelle to Addis Ababa as shortages of basic products worsen across the regional capital, home to more than 500,000 residents. Hawkers sell smuggled petrol at intersections with prices rising from 300 to 430 birr in recent days, according to Addis Standard. Federal authorities have cut subsidies for months, civil servants are not being paid, and banks are running out of cash.
Tensions have escalated since October 2025, when the Ethiopian government denounced "a clear collusion between the Eritrean government and the TPLF," according to reports. A brief outbreak of fighting occurred in the Chercher area in January, sparking fears of full conflict restarting. Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights to Tigray on January 29 after clashes in Tselemti district, resuming service February 3.
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The 2020-2022 conflict in Tigray killed an estimated 600,000 people according to AFP, before officially ending with the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022.
The current exodus reflects implementation challenges of the Pretoria Agreement amid documented internal divisions within the Tigray People's Liberation Front. TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told AFP that "Tigray is being encircled by federal troops" and "the highly likely scenario seems that there will be a conflict." Many observers told RFI that the TPLF faces mounting internal problems and declining popularity. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed delivered a speech in Tigrinya saying the TPLF "wasn't ready to make even a small compromise." Ethiopia's worsening ties with Eritrea, which borders Tigray, have contributed to the volatility according to Africanews.
