The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) has registered more than 10,900 candidates for the country's seventh general election, drawing from 47 political parties and 73 independent candidates competing at both federal and regional levels. The figures — 2,198 candidates for the House of Peoples' Representatives and 8,736 for regional council seats — represent the procedural scaffolding of a nationwide vote that the government frames as evidence of an expanding democratic space.
But for Merera Gudina, chairperson of the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), one of the country's oldest opposition parties, those numbers obscure a harsher arithmetic. Five years ago, the OFC operated 206 offices across Oromia. Today it maintains three — in Addis Abeba, Ambo, and Assela.
"The conditions for a fair, free, and credible election do not exist," Merera told Addis Standard in November 2025.
The gap between those two sets of numbers — 10,900 candidates on one side, three surviving opposition offices on the other — captures the central tension of an election cycle that has advanced steadily on paper while facing fundamental questions about whether it can deliver meaningful competition on the ground.
The Board's Milestones
NEBE has moved through its procedural calendar with visible momentum. In late February, the Board unveiled the official symbols of 48 registered political parties, a step designed to help voters identify parties on ballots in a country where literacy rates vary significantly across regions. Party representatives also signed an election code of conduct, committing to refrain from violence, hate speech, and intimidation, according to NEBE.
The candidate registration figures are substantial. At the federal level alone, 2,198 individuals are contesting seats in the House of Peoples' Representatives. The participation of 47 parties — if sustained through election day — would represent a crowded ballot in many constituencies.
The Election Board has also taken steps to address security concerns in contested areas. The NEBE announced plans to deploy monitors to security hotspots following concerns raised by political parties. That operational response, however, has not quieted the broader structural critique advanced by the opposition.
The Opposition's Counter-Narrative
Merera Gudina's assessment, delivered in a November 2025 interview with Addis Standard, went beyond the OFC's own organizational losses. He argued that security conditions in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray — regions that together account for roughly 70 percent of Ethiopia's population — make it difficult for opposition parties to field candidates, conduct campaigns, or safeguard ballot boxes on election day.
The obstacles Merera identified are not abstract. Active insurgencies by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in parts of Oromia and Fano militias in Amhara have created zones where civilian governance operates under duress or not at all. The federal government declared a state of emergency in Amhara in August 2023, and while the Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 formally ended the war in Tigray, security conditions in that region remain fragile.
Merera argued that armed actors in these regions would need to agree to allow political activities for a credible vote to take place, and that deploying national and international observers at sufficient scale would be difficult under current conditions, according to Addis Standard.
